Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80db…a632 other 163 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%13W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$4
other 20% −$4
politics 19% −$2
economics 10% −$2
crypto 8% −$1
culture 6% −$1
world 5% −$1
tech 5% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 8 -1.0% -10.4% 12% 0% -10.0%
all 162 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses13 / 149
Open positions1
Markets (closed)162 / 163
History coverage162d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $26 $0 -2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 24 $127 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $87 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 23 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 23 $73 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 23 $40 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $133 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 22 $39 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 22 $68 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 21 $71 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 21 $213 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 21 $82 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $80 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $170 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $74 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 18 $103 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 17 $87 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $66 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 16 $233 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 15 $71 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 15 $119 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 12 $68 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 11 $35 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 10 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 10 $76 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 09 $89 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 08 $81 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 07 $125 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 05 $34 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 03 $186 $0 -0%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 02 $31 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $106 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $27 1h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $25 7d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $26 7d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $38 18d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $38 19d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $28 33d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $28 33d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $33 88d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 93¢ $33 89d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $38 89d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $38 89d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 89d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 89d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $31 89d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $8 89d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $23 89d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $40 89d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $40 90d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $27 90d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $27 90d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $38 90d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $12 90d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $26 90d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 95¢ $39 90d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 90d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $35 90d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $35 91d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 91d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 91d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.16 · official $27.16 (match) · 666 history records