Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:17:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80db…66ae sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$693 (-29%) realized −$693 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%8W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$702
other 10% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -24.0% -31.2% 19% 19% -37.7%
≤30d 43 -24.0% -31.2% 19% 19% -37.7%
≤90d 43 -24.0% -31.2% 19% 19% -37.7%
all 43 -24.0% -31.2% 19% 19% -37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.2% 19% -37.7%
10% ← realistic here -37.8% 14% -43.6%
15% -43.8% 12% -49.1%
20% -49.3% 9% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$35 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$693
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses8 / 35
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage3d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Jun 24 $38 −$1 -2%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $43 −$3 -6%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $89 −$4 -5%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $42 −$1 -2%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $38 −$1 -2%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $43 −$1 -2%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $39 $0 -1%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 24 $43 −$1 -3%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $41 −$2 -6%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $45 −$6 -14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $38 −$4 -10%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $88 −$7 -8%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $85 −$13 -15%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $41 −$4 -10%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $40 −$1 -2%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $45 −$2 -4%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $44 $0 -1%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $48 +$76 +158%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $56 +$78 +140%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $149 −$149 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $57 −$57 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $116 −$116 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $60 +$80 +134%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $58 +$24 +42%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $61 +$199 +325%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $59 −$59 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $57 +$11 +18%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $19 +$3 +14%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $20 +$6 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) SELL Haiti 79¢ $38 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Haiti 38¢ $41 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 62¢ $42 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 83¢ $41 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 89¢ $37 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 75¢ $42 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 96¢ $39 1h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Czechia 74¢ $42 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 40¢ $39 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 37¢ $42 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 22¢ $39 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 17¢ $34 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 38¢ $81 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 17¢ $73 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 29¢ $37 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Haiti 62¢ $39 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 27¢ $43 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $44 1h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Czechia 75¢ $43 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $38 3h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $38 3h
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) BUY Haiti 80¢ $38 3h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $39 3h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Haiti 62¢ $40 3h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $41 3h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $42 3h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Haiti 39¢ $43 3h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $44 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $43 9h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $44 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records