Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80da…8fec crypto 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 711d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$145 (+3%) realized +$145 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%34W / 38L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$8
other 10% $0
crypto 10% +$3
world 10% $0
sports 4% +$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 5 +3.3% -6.6% 100% 20% -6.8%
≤90d 11 +2.6% -7.1% 100% 9% -7.2%
all 72 -1.5% -10.9% 47% 6% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 6% -6.7%
10% -19.4% 4% -15.7%
15% -27.2% 4% -23.8%
20% -34.4% 1% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×8.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.89 per $1 lost it wins $7.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

711d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$145
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses34 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage711d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 June 1-7? Jun 08 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? Jun 02 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 25-31? Jun 02 $16 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $70 in April? May 10 $14 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 10 $16 +$1 +4%
Will BNB reach $700 in March? Apr 22 $14 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 22 $16 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $120 in February? Mar 28 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 28 $16 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Feb 26 $14 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 27 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 27 $16 $0 +1%
Oilers vs. Capitals Nov 20 $181 +$154 +85%
Will Solana reach $250 in October? Nov 04 $11 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 04 $15 $0 +3%
Will Solana dip to $175 in September? Oct 25 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 28 $8 $0 +4%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 28 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 24 $23 +$1 +2%
Will Solana reach $180 in June? Jul 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 28 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 27 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 27 $13 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 18 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Red Star Belgrade win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 04 $0 $0 +50%
Will Young Boys win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Colts win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 06 $0 $0 +40%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 06 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 06 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Jaguars win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 02 $7 −$3 -44%
Will Hillary Clinton win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele Oct 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Broncos win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Sep 09 $40 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $34 5d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 June 1-7? BUY No 98¢ $15 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 90¢ $17 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? BUY No 99¢ $15 21d
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 25-31? BUY No 99¢ $16 21d
Will Solana dip to $70 in April? BUY No 97¢ $14 54d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 96¢ $16 54d
Will BNB reach $700 in March? BUY No 98¢ $14 82d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $16 82d
Will Solana reach $120 in February? BUY No 99¢ $13 111d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? BUY No 99¢ $16 111d
Will Solana reach $150 in January? BUY No 98¢ $14 141d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 98¢ $15 141d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $13 172d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $16 172d
Oilers vs. Capitals BUY Capitals 54¢ $181 210d
Will Solana reach $250 in October? BUY No 98¢ $11 235d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 97¢ $15 235d
Will Solana dip to $175 in September? BUY No 97¢ $25 263d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 96¢ $8 297d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 94¢ $15 297d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 98¢ $23 328d
Will Solana reach $180 in June? BUY No 100¢ $23 354d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $22 387d
Will Solana reach $210 in April? BUY No 99¢ $8 420d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 97¢ $13 420d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $8 456d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $11 456d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 92¢ $8 456d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.18 · official $34.18 (match) · 170 history records