Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80da…543f other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$68 (-33%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$60
14 days−$60
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$77
sports 3% +$13
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +20.8% +9.3% 56% 44% -38.5%
≤30d 10 +8.7% -1.6% 50% 40% -41.3%
≤90d 10 +8.7% -1.6% 50% 40% -41.3%
all 10 +8.7% -1.6% 50% 40% -41.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 40% -41.3%
10% -11.0% 30% -46.9%
15% -19.6% 30% -52.1%
20% -27.5% 30% -56.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$25 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage17d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $27 +$26 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $34 −$34 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $70 29h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 38h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $17 42h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 42h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $34 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $34 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 3d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.83 · official $10.83 (match) · 20 history records