Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x80d9…1895 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$31 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$336per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$364now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$23
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$45
world 26% −$9
other 24% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 14 -6.2% -15.2% 43% 0% -9.1%
all 15 -5.9% -14.9% 40% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 0% -9.2%
10% -23.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -30.5% 0% -25.8%
20% -37.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$17 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$364
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage94d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? No 93¢ 91¢ $372 $364 −$8 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $216 $0 +0%
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? Jun 19 $241 −$23 -10%
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) Jun 06 $487 +$13 +3%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $483 +$1 +0%
Spread: Albania (-2.5) Jun 04 $461 +$24 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $461 $0 +0%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 03 $451 +$39 +9%
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? Jun 02 $419 $0 +0%
Spread: Nice (-2.5) May 28 $471 +$19 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $465 $0 +0%
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 0.5 May 24 $61 −$61 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 10 $9 $0 -1%
Spread: Kocaelispor (-2.5) Apr 19 $340 +$11 +3%
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30 Apr 18 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Mar 28 $92 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $372 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $216 10d
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $216 10d
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $218 10d
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $241 10d
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) BUY Slovenia 97¢ $487 25d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $483 25d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $483 26d
Spread: Albania (-2.5) BUY Israel 95¢ $461 26d
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $461 26d
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $461 26d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Wales 92¢ $359 27d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Wales 92¢ $92 27d
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $419 27d
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $419 27d
Spread: Nice (-2.5) BUY Saint-Etienne 96¢ $471 34d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $465 34d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $465 34d
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $29 36d
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $31 36d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $9 50d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $9 50d
Spread: Kocaelispor (-2.5) BUY Göztepe SK 97¢ $340 72d
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30 SELL No 98¢ $340 72d
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30 BUY No 98¢ $342 72d
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? SELL No 67¢ $90 93d
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY No 68¢ $92 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364.00 · official $364.00 (match) · 34 history records