Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:48:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
80 0x80d9…708d sports 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$449 (-5%) realized −$444 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate77%40W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$270
7 days−$541
14 days−$541
30 days−$541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$994
other 27% +$345
crypto 3% +$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.9% -10.4% 74% 66% -16.2%
≤30d 35 -0.9% -10.4% 74% 66% -16.2%
≤90d 52 -1.9% -11.3% 77% 62% -14.7%
all 52 -1.9% -11.3% 77% 62% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 62% -14.7%
10% -19.8% 38% -22.8%
15% -27.5% 25% -30.3%
20% -34.6% 10% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$180 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized−$444
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses40 / 12
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage50d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 71¢ 69¢ $166 $160 −$5 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 20 $219 −$218 -99%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $164 +$56 +34%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $180 −$178 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 18 $124 +$55 +44%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $84 +$41 +48%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $83 −$82 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $144 +$23 +16%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $110 +$34 +31%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $86 +$24 +27%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $183 −$181 -99%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $164 +$19 +12%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $122 +$42 +34%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $87 +$35 +40%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $147 −$146 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $88 +$59 +67%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $165 −$163 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $205 −$204 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $333 +$130 +39%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $358 +$284 +79%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $182 +$18 +10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $137 +$22 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $86 +$51 +59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $130 +$52 +40%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $87 +$43 +50%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $478 −$477 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $402 −$400 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $356 +$18 +5%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $461 +$44 +10%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $303 +$158 +52%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $301 +$48 +16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $61 +$10 +16%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $543 +$58 +11%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $442 +$101 +23%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $302 +$76 +25%
Spread: Valencia CF (-1.5) May 02 $158 +$13 +8%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 02 $143 +$15 +11%
Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-2.5) May 02 $66 +$11 +17%
Spread: West Bromwich Albion FC (-2.5) May 02 $60 +$6 +10%
Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-2.5) May 02 $116 +$10 +9%
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 4.5 May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Konyaspor: O/U 4.5 May 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will AC Nagano Parceiro vs. Fujieda MYFC end in a draw? May 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Tokushima Vortis vs. Ehime FC end in a draw? May 02 $46 +$17 +38%
Will Once Caldas vs. Atlético Nacional end in a draw? May 02 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Bamin Real Potosí vs. CDT Real Oruro end in a draw? May 01 $49 +$14 +29%
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) May 01 $131 +$15 +11%
Gaziantep FK vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 4.5 May 01 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $109 +$10 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $167 1h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY No 80¢ $219 9h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $219 15h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 74¢ $164 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $180 35h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 69¢ $124 39h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $124 40h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $21 41h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $84 41h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 72¢ $62 41h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $167 41h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 86¢ $144 42h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $144 42h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $110 47h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 78¢ $86 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $183 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Croatia 100¢ $183 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 89¢ $164 2d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $164 2d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 73¢ $122 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $122 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $87 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $147 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $88 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $165 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $16 3d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 79¢ $201 3d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 76¢ $4 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $464 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.39 · official $160.42 (match) · 98 history records