Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80d3…141b other 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%14W / 244L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$29
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$43
sports 25% −$25
politics 7% −$6
economics 6% −$5
crypto 6% −$5
culture 5% −$6
world 3% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 186 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 258 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses14 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)258 / 258
History coverage134d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 258 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $204 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $321 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $126 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $143 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $476 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $232 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $292 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $452 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $157 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $367 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $314 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $347 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $198 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $107 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $727 −$2 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $152 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $486 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $299 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $174 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $410 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $374 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $320 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $312 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $348 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $600 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $249 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $423 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $271 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $127 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $294 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 1h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 9h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 10h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $56 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 15h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $40 15h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $16 17h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 18h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 20h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 21h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 26h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 28h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 30h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 32h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 32h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 34h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 35h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 36h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 41h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 43h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 45h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 46h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1421 history records