Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:10:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80d2…5690 crypto 113 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,392 (-21%) realized −$1,392 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate47%53W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$188
7 days−$1,336
14 days−$1,728
30 days−$1,728
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,728
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -29.6% -36.3% 49% 26% -44.4%
≤30d 113 -15.1% -23.2% 47% 38% -33.7%
≤90d 113 -15.1% -23.2% 47% 38% -33.7%
all 113 -15.1% -23.2% 47% 38% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 38% -33.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 32% -40.0%
15% -37.3% 24% -45.8%
20% -43.4% 22% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$44 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,392
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses53 / 60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)113 / 113
History coverage9d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 113 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $76 −$43 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $77 −$19 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $76 −$50 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $81 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$12 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $204 −$76 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $101 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $810 −$700 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 10 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $304 −$300 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $203 +$60 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $302 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $102 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $128 +$42 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $228 +$57 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$20 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $159 −$134 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $15 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 334 history records