Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:19:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80cf…7611 other 607 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8,969 (-2%) realized −$8,871 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate84%507W / 93L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$670per market
Trades / day37.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$3,111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 74d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$10,236
politics 26% −$901
world 20% −$8,985
sports 1% −$3
culture 1% +$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 262 -2.7% -11.9% 93% 1% -9.2%
≤90d 600 -1.5% -10.9% 84% 4% -14.2%
all 600 -1.5% -10.9% 84% 4% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 4% -14.2%
10% -19.4% 3% -22.4%
15% ← realistic here -27.2% 3% -29.9%
20% -34.3% 2% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$364 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$3,111
Realized−$8,871
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses507 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions8
Markets (closed)600 / 607
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$670
Trades / day37.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 600 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 99¢ 95¢ $2,326 $2,231 −$95 (-4%)
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $271 $270 −$1 (-0%)
Ukraine coup attempt by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $210 $210 +$0 (+0%)
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $209 $207 −$2 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-1%)
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Honor of Kings: BanMei Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - Arena of Valor Pr Jun 27 $3 $0 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $518 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 23 to June 3 Jun 27 $8,991 +$9 +0%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 27 $898 +$4 +0%
Will the announcers say "History" during the New Zealand vs Belgium FI Jun 27 $57 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the New Zealand vs Belgium F Jun 27 $812 +$1 +0%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the New Zealand vs Belgium F Jun 27 $241 +$2 +1%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the New Zealand vs Belgium FI Jun 27 $90 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the New Zealand vs Belgium FIF Jun 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 10+ times during Faith & Freedom Coali Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "China" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference? Jun 26 $1,097 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "World Cup" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference Jun 26 $270 +$1 +0%
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 26 $153 +$1 +1%
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this wee Jun 26 $271 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June Jun 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on Jun 26 $260 +$1 +0%
Will "Beauty And A Beat - Justin Bieber" be the #1 song on Spotify thi Jun 26 $248 $0 +0%
Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will "Make Them Cry - Drake" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 26 $157 $0 +0%
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this we Jun 26 $253 $0 +0%
Will "Choosin’ Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 26 $471 +$2 +0%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jun 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this we Jun 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $261 +$1 +0%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $22 +$2 +10%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $79 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? Jun 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will FOX One: Live News, Sports, TV be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Jun 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $75 +$1 +1%
Will Love Island USA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June Jun 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 26? Jun 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June Jun 26 $2 $0 +1%
Will FIFA World Cup 2026 be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will FIFA World Cup 2026 be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $127 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $255 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $72 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $39 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $297 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $53 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $237 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $99 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $39 $0 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $88 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $65 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 100¢ $65 2h
Honor of Kings: BanMei Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - Arena of Valor Pr BUY BanMei Gaming 99¢ $3 2h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Paris Gentle Mates 100¢ $898 3h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the New Zealand vs Belgium F BUY No 100¢ $812 4h
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $176 4h
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $194 4h
Will the announcers say "History" during the New Zealand vs Belgium FI BUY Yes 100¢ $57 4h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the New Zealand vs Belgium F BUY No 100¢ $79 5h
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $148 5h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the New Zealand vs Belgium F BUY No 99¢ $4 5h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the New Zealand vs Belgium F BUY No 99¢ $9 5h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the New Zealand vs Belgium F BUY No 99¢ $148 5h
Will the announcers say "Record" during the New Zealand vs Belgium FIF BUY Yes 100¢ $19 7h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the New Zealand vs Belgium FI BUY Yes 100¢ $90 7h
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 9h
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $265 9h
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 23 to June 3 BUY No 100¢ $1,499 18h
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 23 to June 3 BUY No 100¢ $4,496 18h
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 23 to June 3 BUY No 100¢ $2,997 19h
Will Trump say "China" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference? BUY No 100¢ $1,097 20h
Will Trump say "World Cup" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference BUY No 100¢ $47 20h
Will Trump say "World Cup" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference BUY No 100¢ $52 20h
Will Trump say "World Cup" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference BUY No 100¢ $57 20h
Will Trump say "World Cup" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference BUY No 100¢ $56 20h
Will Trump say "World Cup" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference BUY No 100¢ $59 20h
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 10+ times during Faith & Freedom Coali BUY No 100¢ $10 20h
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 21h
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 22h
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $204 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,111.04 · official $3,111.04 (match) · 3500 history records