Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:20:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80ce…0f13 sports 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$129 (-19%) realized −$129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%15W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$197
finance 6% +$14
politics 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -42.8% -48.3% 25% 25% -66.8%
≤90d 52 -28.5% -35.4% 29% 27% -39.2%
all 52 -28.5% -35.4% 29% 27% -39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.4% 27% -39.2%
10% -41.5% 27% -45.0%
15% -47.2% 27% -50.3%
20% -52.4% 27% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses15 / 37
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage58d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 32¢ 32¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $20 −$19 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 25 $9 −$9 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winner May 24 $18 −$17 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 24 $9 +$11 +129%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex - Map 3 Winner May 16 $19 −$18 -99%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner May 15 $15 +$15 +102%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner May 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $16 −$15 -97%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX - Map 2 Winner May 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs BBL Esports - Map 2 Winner May 09 $13 +$37 +299%
Valorant: DRX vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 09 $33 −$12 -37%
Valorant: DRX vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 1 Winner May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Pla May 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Map 2 Winner May 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Map 1 Winner May 09 $18 −$18 -98%
Valorant: T1 vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 08 $9 −$9 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports - Map 1 Winner May 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner May 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 07 $17 +$1 +8%
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 07 $8 −$8 -98%
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner May 07 $7 $0 -2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 07 $9 +$11 +128%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 07 $21 +$13 +59%
Valorant: TYLOO vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 05 $16 −$15 -99%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 05 $7 −$7 -99%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Grou May 02 $5 +$15 +276%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Global Esports - Map 2 Winner May 02 $8 −$8 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: T1 vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner May 02 $9 −$9 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group May 02 $10 −$6 -57%
Valorant: VARREL vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega May 01 $18 +$42 +237%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Team Secret (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha May 01 $14 −$14 -98%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Team Secret - Map 1 Winner May 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $9 +$10 +105%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels - Map 2 Winner Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: T1 vs ZETA DIVISION - Map 2 Winner Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs DRX - Map 1 Winner Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: T1 vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs VARREL (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs DRX (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha Apr 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Team Secret (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group A Apr 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $12 +$17 +149%
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega Apr 26 $16 +$24 +154%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $5 +$5 +93%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega Apr 24 $12 +$23 +195%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 32¢ $33 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $20 3d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 BUY Leviatán Esports 31¢ $9 26d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 21¢ $6 26d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 55¢ $11 26d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 43¢ $9 27d
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY FULL SENSE 8¢ $26 34d
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY FULL SENSE 8¢ $0 34d
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY FULL SENSE 8¢ $0 34d
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY FULL SENSE 8¢ $1 34d
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY FULL SENSE 8¢ $2 34d
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY FULL SENSE 8¢ $3 34d
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex - Map 3 Winner BUY Global Esports 37¢ $13 35d
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex - Map 3 Winner BUY Global Esports 37¢ $6 35d
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 39¢ $9 35d
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 39¢ $7 35d
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 49¢ $2 35d
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 49¢ $12 35d
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 37d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 1¢ $0 40d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 1¢ $0 40d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 8¢ $0 40d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 8¢ $5 40d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 8¢ $1 40d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 8¢ $1 40d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 24¢ $7 40d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs BBL Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 24¢ $13 41d
Valorant: DRX vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY Nongshim RedForce 11¢ $3 41d
Valorant: DRX vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY Nongshim RedForce 15¢ $9 41d
Valorant: DRX vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs SELL DRX 81¢ $73 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.50 · official $32.50 (match) · 135 history records