Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80cd…0558 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$135 (-30%) realized −$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days−$57
14 days−$107
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$101
sports 46% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-69.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -58.7% -62.6% 23% 23% -27.0%
≤30d 16 -66.4% -69.6% 19% 19% -45.7%
≤90d 16 -66.4% -69.6% 19% 19% -45.7%
all 16 -66.4% -69.6% 19% 19% -45.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -69.6% 19% -45.7%
10% -72.5% 19% -50.9%
15% -75.2% 19% -55.6%
20% -77.6% 12% -60.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$21 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage18d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 18¢ 18¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$49 +97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $27 +$13 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $25 59m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $9 2h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $17 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $41 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 7h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $100 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 17h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 17h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 17h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 45h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 45h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 40¢ $50 17d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $48 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.74 · official $43.74 (match) · 29 history records