Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:10:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80cd…0273 crypto 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$845,678 (+244%) realized +$844,168 · open +$1,510
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +113% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip
Net edge+48%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate71%70W / 29L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,992per market
Trades / day79.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25,166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,376
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+92.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +75.1% +58.4% 57% 52% -10.8%
≤30d 98 +93.6% +75.2% 70% 33% -5.3%
≤90d 99 +112.9% +92.6% 71% 33% -5.3%
all 99 +112.9% +92.6% 71% 33% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +92.6% 33% -5.3%
10% +74.2% 27% -14.3%
15% ← realistic here +57.3% 19% -22.6%
20% +41.9% 14% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +113% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$1,656) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +170% → late +57% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
21.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$755 vs −$1,811 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$25,166
Realized+$844,168
Unrealized+$1,510
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses70 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Open positions18
Markets (closed)99 / 116
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$2,992
Trades / day79.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 23? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $3,841 $3,866 +$25 (+1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 24? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $4,061 $3,734 −$327 (-8%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 25? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $3,507 $3,582 +$75 (+2%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 26? Yes 68¢ 71¢ $3,397 $3,546 +$150 (+4%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 27? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $3,346 $3,470 +$124 (+4%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? Down 49¢ 62¢ $2,021 $2,589 +$568 (+28%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $1,927 $2,070 +$143 (+7%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? No 11¢ 35¢ $351 $1,118 +$767 (+218%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 24? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $367 $355 −$12 (-3%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $255 $275 +$20 (+8%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 27? Yes 64¢ 58¢ $294 $268 −$26 (-9%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 25? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $236 $242 +$5 (+2%)
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 27? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
XRP Up or Down on June 22? Up 28¢ 26¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-7%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 23? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 26? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 22? No 14¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 28? Yes 62¢ 32¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down on May 18? Jun 22 $525 −$525 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 21? Jun 21 $99 +$4 +4%
XRP Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $24 −$6 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $5,236 −$3,745 -72%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,209 +$616 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $3,519 +$1,626 +46%
XRP Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $44 +$27 +62%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? Jun 20 $3,326 +$1,376 +41%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 20? Jun 20 $34 +$5 +14%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 19? Jun 19 $3,348 +$623 +19%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $17,891 +$5,792 +32%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 21? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $1,650 −$1,650 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 18 $17,523 −$8,905 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1,913 −$657 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $1,064 −$970 -91%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $666 +$77 +12%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? Jun 16 $620 +$192 +31%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,251 +$848 +68%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 15? Jun 15 $140 +$22 +16%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $10,356 −$152 -2%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 17? Jun 15 $8 $0 -5%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 14? Jun 14 $4,108 +$1,166 +28%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $3,259 −$1,352 -42%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 13? Jun 13 $3,950 +$1,050 +27%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 13? Jun 13 $907 +$29 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $2,140 −$263 -12%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? Jun 12 $5,021 +$540 +11%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,244 +$114 +9%
XRP Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $4,598 +$686 +15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $9,350 +$1,943 +21%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$6 +96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $21,101 +$135 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,138 +$50 +4%
XRP Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +79%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 10? Jun 10 $40 +$2 +5%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 10? Jun 10 $111 +$5 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 10? Jun 10 $4,895 +$105 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 10? Jun 10 $15 +$5 +35%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $12,024 −$2,099 -18%
XRP Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1,511 −$1,491 -99%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,407 +$61 +4%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 9? Jun 09 $36 +$1 +4%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 9? Jun 09 $328 +$42 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 9? Jun 09 $7,483 +$970 +13%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,546 +$58 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 08 $28,792 −$4,307 -15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 8? Jun 08 $278 +$8 +3%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$9 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? BUY No 11¢ $491 6m
XRP Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 23¢ $5 22m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? BUY No 10¢ $5 24m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? BUY No 10¢ $39 40m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 28? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 27? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 25? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 27? BUY Yes 63¢ $97 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? BUY No 12¢ $34 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? BUY No 12¢ $60 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? BUY No 11¢ $37 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 49¢ $2,847 3h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 48¢ $728 3h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 67¢ $24 3h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 65¢ $11 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? BUY No 11¢ $58 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 24? BUY Yes 73¢ $17 4h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 68¢ $1,116 4h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 68¢ $56 4h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 78¢ $561 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 25? BUY Yes 74¢ $75 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 24? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 4h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 74¢ $5 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? BUY Yes 79¢ $80 4h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 69¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,165.80 · official $25,165.93 (match) · 3500 history records