Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:00:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80cc…b5a4 crypto 397 markets active 7h ago coverage 728d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,411 (-15%) realized −$7,712 · open −$699
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate20%77W / 314L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$298
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$3,818
tech 15% −$891
other 8% −$2,825
economics 3% −$1,264
politics 1% −$308
world 0% −$32
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 22 -43.7% -49.0% 14% 14% -18.1%
≤90d 233 -53.7% -58.1% 10% 10% -46.7%
all 391 -26.5% -33.5% 20% 18% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.5% 18% -24.3%
10% -39.8% 15% -31.5%
15% -45.6% 13% -38.1%
20% -51.0% 12% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$76 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

728d coverage
Net worth$1,204
Realized−$7,712
Unrealized−$699
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses77 / 314
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)391 / 397
History coverage728d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 391 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1,244 $723 −$521 (-42%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $321 $316 −$5 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $60 $56 −$3 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $109 $43 −$67 (-61%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 8¢ 2¢ $119 $39 −$80 (-67%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Up 7¢ 4¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $27 −$26 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $153 −$63 -41%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $256 −$110 -43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $36 −$34 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 05 $177 −$65 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $49 +$41 +83%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $44 −$43 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 27 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 27 $183 +$581 +317%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 27 $14 −$10 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? May 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? May 24 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23? May 23 $318 −$298 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22? May 21 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $5 +$15 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 18? May 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 17 $2 +$4 +169%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17? May 17 $3 −$2 -55%
Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Ji May 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 11? May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 11? May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 10? May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $45 −$42 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 07 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 07 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 7¢ $52 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 6¢ $1 6h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 10¢ $34 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $27 32h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 10¢ $12 32h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 10¢ $11 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $27 40h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 10¢ $36 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 40h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 10¢ $1 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 7¢ $6 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $36 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 10¢ $24 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 10¢ $6 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 9¢ $11 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $36 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 10¢ $19 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 11¢ $50 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,203.51 · official $1,203.51 (match) · 1823 history records