Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:22:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80c9…e971 crypto 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$128 (-15%) realized −$92 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days−$47
14 days−$68
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$26
crypto 26% −$36
finance 7% +$4
tech 6% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +5.6% -4.4% 39% 32% -21.2%
≤30d 35 -1.1% -10.6% 40% 31% -19.6%
≤90d 35 -1.1% -10.6% 40% 31% -19.6%
all 35 -1.1% -10.6% 40% 31% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 31% -19.6%
10% -19.1% 31% -27.3%
15% -26.9% 26% -34.3%
20% -34.1% 26% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Open positions26
Markets (closed)35 / 61
History coverage13d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+88%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-21%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-35%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-38%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-65%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 18 $5 +$48 +926%
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $101 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$6 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$13 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$5 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $44 −$43 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $21 −$13 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $211 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? SELL No 99¢ $54 1h
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 33¢ $11 2d
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 12¢ $10 2d
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 9¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 2d
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 10¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 3d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 60¢ $56 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $12 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.87 · official $182.88 (match) · 104 history records