Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:17:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80c2…e6e3 crypto 449 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$178 (+7%) realized +$178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate52%235W / 214L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day47.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$5
14 days−$22
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$66
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -9.0% -17.7% 53% 35% -8.0%
≤30d 449 -9.5% -18.1% 52% 34% -9.2%
≤90d 449 -9.5% -18.1% 52% 34% -9.2%
all 449 -9.5% -18.1% 52% 34% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 34% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 20% -17.9%
15% -33.1% 11% -25.8%
20% -39.7% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 40% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses235 / 214
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)449 / 449
History coverage26d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day47.3
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 449 Trades
no open positions (93 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 -1%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$12 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 22h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $1 22h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 88¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $0 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1327 history records