Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:19:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80c0…9519 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,841 (-39%) realized −$7,433 · open +$592
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,260per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$4,092now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,875
7 days−$5,248
14 days−$5,248
30 days−$5,748
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$3,790
sports 34% −$2,659
crypto 3% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +24.9% +13.0% 12% 12% -65.5%
≤30d 9 +11.0% +0.4% 11% 11% -67.4%
≤90d 9 +11.0% +0.4% 11% 11% -67.4%
all 11 +4.0% -5.9% 18% 9% -58.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 9% -58.4%
10% -14.9% 9% -62.4%
15% -23.2% 9% -66.0%
20% -30.7% 9% -69.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$397 vs −$926 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$4,092
Realized−$7,433
Unrealized+$592
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage165d
Avg bet$1,260
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2,000 $2,158 +$158 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1,000 $1,047 +$47 (+5%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 36¢ $500 $888 +$388 (+78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $513 −$381 -74%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,050 −$244 -12%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2,273 −$2,250 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $609 −$396 -65%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $195 −$185 -95%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $764 −$525 -69%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $103 +$733 +714%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2,047 −$2,000 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $520 −$500 -96%
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 31 $3,144 −$1,853 -59%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $1,838 +$60 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $132 54m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $512 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $513 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1,807 35h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $762 36h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,511 37h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $175 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $13 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $25 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes $10 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 19¢ $195 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $512 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $97 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $196 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $836 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $764 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2,047 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,092.27 · official $3,992.27 · 61 history records