Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80bb…b8aa weather 866 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate93%782W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$18
14 days+$31
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$3
politics 1% −$10
other 0% $0
crypto 0% −$15
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 621 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 1% -9.5%
≤90d 832 -1.1% -10.6% 94% 3% -9.5%
all 842 -2.0% -11.3% 93% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.8% 2% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 1% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$2,162
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses782 / 60
Open positions24
Markets (closed)842 / 866
History coverage112d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 842 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 75°F or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $117 $117 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $107 $107 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 77°F or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 23°C or below on June 1 Jun 17 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 69°F or below on June 15? Jun 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 98-99°F on June 15? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 102°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 100-101°F on June 1 Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C or higher on June Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 94°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $98 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 14? Jun 15 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on June 1 Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 100°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on June 14? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 102°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on June 14 Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C or higher on June Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 98°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C or higher on June 14 Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $62 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $9 5m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 16m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 16m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $27 43m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $107 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $117 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $150 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $95 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $150 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 6h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 77°F or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $40 6h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $40 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $150 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 100¢ $62 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,161.68 · official $2,161.28 (match) · 2345 history records