Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:58:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80ba…2e78 sports 296 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (200 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,018 (-4%) realized −$11,525 · open +$507
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate18%110W / 505L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,036per market
Trades / day199.9pace
Fees−$5,031est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$8,380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$15,554
other 9% −$270
world 1% −$3,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (200 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-58.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 448 -72.6% -75.2% 12% 11% -68.0%
≤30d 615 -53.8% -58.2% 18% 16% -47.0%
≤90d 615 -53.8% -58.2% 18% 16% -47.0%
all 615 -53.8% -58.2% 18% 16% -47.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover199.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -58.2% 16% -47.0%
10% -62.2% 15% -52.0%
15% ← realistic here -65.8% 15% -56.7%
20% -69.2% 13% -60.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$880) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,371 vs −$700 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$8,380
Realized−$11,525
Unrealized+$507
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses110 / 505
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$5,031
Open positions3
Markets (closed)615 / 296
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$1,036
Trades / day199.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 615 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs THE VISION 95¢ 100¢ $5,182 $5,468 +$286 (+6%)
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner THE VISION 93¢ 100¢ $2,162 $2,335 +$173 (+8%)
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner THE VISION 92¢ 100¢ $529 $577 +$48 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 22 $175 −$175 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $302 −$302 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $365 −$365 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 22 $207 −$207 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 22 $584 −$584 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 22 $233 −$233 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $195 −$195 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $663 −$663 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $182 −$182 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $236 −$236 -100%
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $777 −$777 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $649 −$649 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St Jun 22 $93 −$93 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $224 −$224 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $316 −$316 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 22 $628 −$628 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 22 $682 −$662 -97%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 22 $252 −$252 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $1,398 −$1,398 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 22 $407 −$407 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 22 $93 −$93 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 22 $908 −$908 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs Jun 22 $634 −$634 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Fisher College (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 22 $296 −$296 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 22 $508 −$508 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B Jun 22 $150 −$150 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 22 $532 −$532 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $166 −$166 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $418 −$418 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 22 $377 −$377 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $404 −$404 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $469 −$469 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 22 $1,634 −$1,634 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $317 −$317 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $392 −$392 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 22 $179 −$179 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $509 −$509 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 22 $1,537 −$1,537 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Jun 22 $391 −$391 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $388 −$388 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla Jun 22 $247 −$247 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 22 $195 −$195 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $112 −$112 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $410 −$410 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 22 $444 −$444 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 22 $1,011 −$1,011 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $1,167 −$1,167 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 22 $142 −$142 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $1,148 −$1,148 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY THE VISION 94¢ $514 43m
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY THE VISION 94¢ $47 43m
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY THE VISION 94¢ $19 43m
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY THE VISION 94¢ $40 43m
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY THE VISION 92¢ $87 47m
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY THE VISION 92¢ $87 47m
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY THE VISION 92¢ $702 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY THE VISION 92¢ $666 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY THE VISION 95¢ $23 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY THE VISION 95¢ $76 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY THE VISION 95¢ $40 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY THE VISION 95¢ $95 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY THE VISION 95¢ $57 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY THE VISION 95¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY THE VISION 95¢ $18 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY THE VISION 95¢ $37 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY THE VISION 95¢ $12 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY THE VISION 95¢ $380 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY THE VISION 95¢ $95 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY THE VISION 95¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY THE VISION 95¢ $66 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY THE VISION 95¢ $95 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY THE VISION 95¢ $116 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY THE VISION 95¢ $92 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY THE VISION 92¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY THE VISION 92¢ $54 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY THE VISION 92¢ $54 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY THE VISION 92¢ $54 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY THE VISION 92¢ $54 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY THE VISION 92¢ $54 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,379.67 · official $8,379.67 (match) · 3500 history records