Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:50:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80b9…6977 world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$7
other 21% $0
sports 4% $0
politics 4% +$1
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.5% -12.7% 50% 0% -12.1%
≤30d 11 -1.7% -11.0% 36% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 11 -1.7% -11.0% 36% 0% -10.8%
all 28 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 4% -10.3%
10% -17.4% 4% -18.9%
15% -25.4% 0% -26.7%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage461d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $118 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $49 −$8 -17%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $77 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $14 $0 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $93 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 22 $1 $0 +3%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 12 $1 $0 +29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? Apr 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 23? Mar 24 $13 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $13 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 20 $12 +$1 +5%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 11 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $41 3h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 32h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 35h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 39h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 39h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $27 41h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 41h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 41h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 43h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $23 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $41 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $49 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $12 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $16 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $34 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $26 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $26 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $7 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $49 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records