Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:25:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80b4…425f other 111 markets active 0h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%36W / 73L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$10
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$8
other 32% +$5
politics 1% −$2
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 31 -4.4% -13.5% 26% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 35 -3.9% -13.1% 26% 0% -9.6%
all 109 -1.4% -10.8% 33% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 3% -9.5%
10% -19.3% 1% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 1% -26.1%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses36 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage447d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 63¢ 46¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-28%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $132 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $135 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $125 −$3 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $152 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $138 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 10 $138 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $108 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1,232 −$1 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $138 −$3 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $33 −$2 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -17%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $6 −$1 -12%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $6 $0 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $148 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $64 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $78 −$8 -11%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $114 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $323 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $169 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $154 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $155 +$7 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $163 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $163 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $148 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $145 −$3 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $164 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $118 +$3 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $319 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $2,934 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 13 $917 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $917 +$1 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $1,009 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jan 15 $7 $0 +2%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $22 $0 +0%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $14 +$3 +19%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $2 $0 -7%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $19 $0 +2%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $13 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $132 6m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $132 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $135 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $107 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $39 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $44 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $47 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $38 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $38 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $151 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $152 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $131 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $138 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $138 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $78 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $60 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $108 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $108 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $21 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $117 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $122 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $88 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $46 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $138 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.44 · official $0.00 (match) · 381 history records