Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80af…24a3 crypto 1425 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$750 (-1%) realized −$750 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate84%1314W / 259L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,384
7 days−$1,628
14 days−$1,903
30 days−$1,779
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$609
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 271 -53.1% -57.6% 44% 3% -21.5%
≤30d 552 -27.3% -34.2% 67% 7% -14.0%
≤90d 1573 -9.9% -18.5% 84% 10% -11.4%
all 1573 -9.9% -18.5% 84% 10% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 10% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 5% -19.8%
15% -33.4% 3% -27.6%
20% -40.0% 2% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$20 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$750
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1314 / 259
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1573 / 1425
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$71
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1573 Trades
no open positions (232 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $108 −$108 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during January press conference? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $114 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 23h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $42 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $67 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $110 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $84 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records