Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

80 0x80ae…7350 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$140 (-15%) realized −$161 · open +$21

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip

Net edge-27%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%3W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$91per market

Trades / day3.5pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit10%portable

Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-23.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-15.7%	-23.8%	33%	33%	-31.1%
≤30d	9	-15.7%	-23.8%	33%	33%	-31.1%
≤90d	9	-15.7%	-23.8%	33%	33%	-31.1%
all	9	-15.7%	-23.8%	33%	33%	-31.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-23.8%	33%	-31.1%
10%	-31.1%	33%	-37.7%
15%	-37.7%	22%	-43.7%
20%	-43.8%	11%	-49.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 78% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -16% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$45 vs −$56 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.4 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$90

Realized−$161

Unrealized+$21

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses3 / 6

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)9 / 10

History coverage4d

Avg bet$91

Trades / day3.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	61¢	80¢	$69	$90	+$21 (+30%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$73	−$1	-1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 14	$81	−$8	-10%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 14	$107	−$25	-23%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$105	−$105	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$105	−$105	-100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$105	+$51	+49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$53	+$54	+102%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 13	$105	+$30	+29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$106	−$92	-87%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	61¢	$73	1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	74¢	$73	25h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	68¢	$73	2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$74	2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$81	2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	7¢	$82	2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$107	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$105	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	58¢	$105	2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	64¢	$105	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$53	3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	74¢	$105	3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	6¢	$14	3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	41¢	$106	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.93 · official $89.93 (match) · 21 history records