Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:07:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

80 0x80ac…9f7e other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$552 (-30%) realized −$551 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$363per market

Trades / day4.2pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-9.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+0.3%	-9.2%	50%	50%	-43.8%
≤30d	4	+0.3%	-9.2%	50%	50%	-43.8%
≤90d	4	+0.3%	-9.2%	50%	50%	-43.8%
all	4	+0.3%	-9.2%	50%	50%	-43.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.2%	50%	-43.8%
10%	-17.9%	50%	-49.2%
15%	-25.9%	50%	-54.1%
20%	-33.1%	25%	-58.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 67% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -38% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$211 vs −$534 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.4 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$99

Realized−$551

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage2d

Avg bet$363

Trades / day4.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	41¢	40¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$202	−$118	-58%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$249	+$284	+114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$303	+$138	+46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$959	−$950	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	41¢	$102	12m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	28¢	$84	12m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$202	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$20	3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	45¢	$203	14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$303	14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$25	44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$959	45h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.78 · official $98.78 (match) · 10 history records