Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x80ab…fc71 sports 205 markets active 11h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+2%) realized +$53 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%97W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$147
14 days+$62
30 days+$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$61
crypto 8% −$27
other 6% +$119
world 2% +$26
tech 2% +$9
economics 1% −$3
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +13.5% +2.7% 55% 39% +8.9%
≤30d 89 +23.8% +12.0% 55% 45% +4.3%
≤90d 178 +5.3% -4.7% 53% 46% -4.5%
all 193 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 44% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 44% -8.5%
10% -18.1% 44% -17.2%
15% -26.0% 38% -25.2%
20% -33.2% 34% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$53
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses97 / 96
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions12
Markets (closed)193 / 205
History coverage95d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 46¢ 48¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 29¢ 26¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 65¢ 96¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 49¢ 57¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 75¢ 100¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+33%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Mayweather 66¢ 62¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 55¢ 42¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-23%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 62¢ 74¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 53¢ 23¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-57%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 68¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Panna Udvardy 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Elitzur Netanya vs. Maccabi Raanana Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Parma (Doubles): Biryukov/Gadamauri vs Martinez/Izquierdo Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$63 +307%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $4 +$4 +86%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$21 +101%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$90 +874%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$21 +101%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Nanterre vs. Monaco Jun 14 $10 +$7 +73%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 14 $10 +$7 +73%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 14 $20 +$7 +36%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $20 +$17 +86%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $20 +$20 +97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$30 +291%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $30 +$35 +114%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 10h
Parma (Doubles): Biryukov/Gadamauri vs Martinez/Izquierdo BUY Biryukov/Gadamauri 51¢ $10 10h
Elitzur Netanya vs. Maccabi Raanana BUY Elitzur Netanya 68¢ $10 10h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY FC Bayern Munchen 63¢ $10 10h
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Justin Boulais 57¢ $10 10h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 62¢ $10 10h
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 43¢ $10 10h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 41¢ $10 10h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 50¢ $10 10h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $10 10h
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 10h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 47¢ $10 10h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 59¢ $10 10h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 42¢ $10 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 46¢ $20 10h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $20 10h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $20 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $20 10h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $4 3d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 58¢ $10 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $10 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $10 3d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 48¢ $10 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $10 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ $10 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $10 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $10 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.04 · official $97.05 (match) · 320 history records