Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:26:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80a9…1e50 other 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 647d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$86 (+1%) realized +$80 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate30%44W / 105L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$58
crypto 19% +$85
sports 15% +$37
politics 2% −$1
economics 2% −$24
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -8.8% -17.5% 20% 20% -10.9%
≤30d 6 -7.3% -16.1% 17% 17% -10.8%
≤90d 7 -6.3% -15.2% 14% 14% -10.8%
all 149 -9.0% -17.7% 30% 13% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 13% -9.3%
10% -25.6% 8% -17.9%
15% -32.7% 7% -25.9%
20% -39.3% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$7 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

647d coverage
Net worth$381
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses44 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)149 / 151
History coverage647d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $375 $381 +$6 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $76 −$7 -9%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $39 +$28 +71%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $677 −$25 -4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1,197 −$21 -2%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $106 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $125 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Mar 21 $223 +$19 +9%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 21 $226 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 28 $74 +$97 +131%
Will Solana dip to $110 in January? Jan 20 $515 +$239 +46%
Will Solana dip to $120 in January? Jan 20 $123 +$24 +19%
Will Solana dip to $100 in January? Jan 20 $13 −$3 -25%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $80 +$28 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 17 $30 −$13 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $355 +$52 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $94 +$35 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 14 $429 +$34 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 14 $159 −$116 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $71 −$35 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 12 $1,311 +$83 +6%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 09 $106 +$1 +1%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 11 $140 +$16 +11%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 21 $140 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 10 $313 +$27 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 9, 2PM ET Oct 09 $92 +$10 +11%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 08 $104 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 07 $104 $0 +0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $103 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 1–August 8? Aug 10 $103 $0 +0%
FIFA Club World Cup: Chelsea vs. PSG – To Lift Trophy Aug 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8? Aug 04 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1? Aug 04 $123 −$38 -31%
US recession in 2025? Jul 30 $100 −$24 -24%
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 11–18? Jul 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11? Jul 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 02 $20 $0 +2%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2024-25 FA Cup? Jun 02 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 02 $105 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 22 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Stuttgart win the Bundesliga? Apr 05 $42 $0 +0%
Solana above $175 on February 28? Feb 24 $338 −$233 -69%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Feb 23 $262 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Feb 23 $236 +$26 +11%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Feb 22 $236 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28? Feb 22 $380 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-22? Feb 22 $10 −$7 -70%
Abstract token launch by January 31? Feb 02 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 17-24? Jan 28 $40 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $71 27m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 28m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $39 30m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 31m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $70 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $384 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $49 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $542 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY 58¢ $39 4h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? BUY Yes $5 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $532 6h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 6h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 7h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 7h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 7h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 7h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $652 7h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Will Spain win o BUY $1 9h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $384 14h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $187 14h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $106 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $388 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 14h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 15h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 15h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $381.03 · official $382.00 (match) · 841 history records