Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:32:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
80 0x80a8…8d88 weather 290 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$88 (+10%) realized +$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%137W / 147L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$4
14 days+$71
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 69% +$32
crypto 31% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -2.9% -12.1% 49% 49% -9.0%
≤30d 284 +3.1% -6.8% 48% 48% -2.9%
≤90d 284 +3.1% -6.8% 48% 48% -2.9%
all 284 +3.1% -6.8% 48% 48% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 48% -2.9%
10% -15.7% 48% -12.2%
15% -23.8% 48% -20.7%
20% -31.3% 46% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses137 / 147
Open positions6
Markets (closed)284 / 290
History coverage26d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? No 48¢ 51¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? No 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? No 49¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 16? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? No 42¢ 39¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? No 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +102%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +127%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 22¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 47¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 49¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY No 42¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 48¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.22 · official $13.22 (match) · 659 history records