Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80a6…3a9e world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 399d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$5
other 31% $0
politics 5% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 4% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 12 +3.1% -6.7% 42% 8% -10.4%
≤90d 12 +3.1% -6.7% 42% 8% -10.4%
all 31 -2.0% -11.3% 32% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 3% -10.5%
10% -19.8% 3% -19.0%
15% -27.6% 3% -26.9%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

399d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage399d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 97¢ 96¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $34 +$2 +7%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $8 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $40 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $21 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $59 −$6 -10%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $1 $0 +36%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $51 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 28 $7 $0 +4%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -89%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Giorgia Meloni be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -8%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June? May 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will 'The Brave' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award for 2025? May 24 $19 $0 -1%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 23 $19 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? May 19 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $43 8h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $22 13h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $21 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $24 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $19 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $43 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $16 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $20 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 87¢ $31 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 87¢ $3 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $45 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $39 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $21 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.54 · official $39.54 (match) · 98 history records