Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

80 0x80a5…2293 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

Total PnL −$3 (-5%) realized −$32 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip

Net edge-71%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate17%1W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$11per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-69.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-66.2%	-69.4%	17%	17%	-55.6%
≤30d	6	-66.2%	-69.4%	17%	17%	-55.6%
≤90d	6	-66.2%	-69.4%	17%	17%	-55.6%
all	6	-66.2%	-69.4%	17%	17%	-55.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-69.4%	17%	-55.6%
10%	-72.3%	17%	-59.9%
15%	-75.0%	17%	-63.7%
20%	-77.4%	17%	-67.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -51% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -66% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.33 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$32

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses1 / 5

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)6 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$11

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	Over	40¢	0¢	$9	$0	−$9 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	17¢	0¢	$3	$0	−$3 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	0¢	0¢	$16	$0	−$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	26¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-100%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Over	42¢	0¢	$15	$0	−$15 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$9	−$9	-98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$15	−$15	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-95%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$16	−$16	-97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$15	+$16	+103%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$3	−$3	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	40¢	$9	1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	42¢	$15	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$5	2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	0¢	$16	3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	99¢	$31	3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	48¢	$15	4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	17¢	$3	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records