Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:00:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

80
0x80a1…fd66
world · 88 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$156 -35%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$150 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18
Realized−$150
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses29 / 43
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)72 / 88
History coverage58d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 16 History 72 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 83¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 21¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-73%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 15, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Under 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? No 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +172%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +22%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 28 $2 −$1 -54%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31? May 28 $2 −$2 -86%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 28 $1 −$1 -83%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 28 $2 −$2 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 28 $6 −$6 -89%
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? May 28 $1 −$1 -91%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? May 28 $2 −$2 -91%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 28 $18 −$9 -48%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? May 28 $2 −$2 -84%
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? May 28 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 28 $17 −$12 -71%
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? May 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 19 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 19 $3 $0 -8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 19 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel? May 18 $1 −$1 -86%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 14 $4 −$1 -24%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 15, 2026? May 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? May 14 $2 +$6 +300%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 30 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $2 +$2 +89%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 29 $8 +$4 +46%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 29 $4 −$3 -66%
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30? Apr 29 $10 −$6 -56%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 29 $184 −$108 -59%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 29 $1 $0 -36%
Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $13 −$13 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Apr 28 $5 +$5 +90%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Apr 28 $4 +$1 +28%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Apr 28 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 28 $5 +$1 +23%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 28 $4 +$2 +46%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 28 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $2 +$1 +28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 28 $2 +$1 +29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $2 +$1 +66%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 62% −$155
world 22% +$30
other 10% −$12
finance 4% −$10
sports 2% −$7
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 58m
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Mess BUY Yes 34¢ $1 59m
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 59m
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $1 33h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 3d
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 14d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 14d
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by Dece BUY Yes 11¢ $2 16d
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 16d
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 16d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 16d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 16d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16d
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -16.8% -24.7% 40% 40% -36.6%
≤30d 24 -57.3% -61.4% 17% 17% -65.1%
≤90d 72 -12.0% -20.4% 40% 39% -41.7%
all 72 -12.0% -20.4% 40% 39% -41.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 39% -41.7%
10% -28.0% 35% -47.3%
15% -35.0% 22% -52.4%
20% -41.3% 15% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.02 · official $18.02 (match) · 192 history records