Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:07:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x809c…8cfd other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$903 (-11%) realized −$858 · open −$45
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$562per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$1,172
sports 42% +$467
tech 10% −$667
other 5% +$461
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 10 +2.1% -7.6% 30% 30% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 30% -19.7%
10% -16.5% 30% -27.4%
15% -24.6% 20% -34.4%
20% -31.9% 20% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$447 vs −$315 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$858
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage240d
Avg bet$562
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $86 $68 −$18 (-21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $20 −$4 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $31 $19 −$12 (-38%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $19 −$12 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 01 $17 −$17 -100%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Jan 31 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 30 $3,240 −$1,172 -36%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 30 $711 −$607 -85%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 17 $176 $0 -0%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $962 −$53 -6%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $200 +$59 +30%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $186 +$523 +281%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 31 $1,000 −$297 -30%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $1,139 +$758 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $64 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 14d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 16d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 16d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 17d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb BUY Yes $0 146d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb BUY Yes $6 146d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb BUY Yes $11 146d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? BUY No $60 147d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $827 149d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $286 149d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes $0 149d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 149d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes $100 149d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes $4 149d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $51 149d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 149d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes $42 149d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes $63 149d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes $20 149d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes $0 149d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes $16 149d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 149d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes $1 149d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes $4 149d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes $16 149d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes $3 149d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 149d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes $1 149d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes $14 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.01 · official $126.02 (match) · 136 history records