Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
80 0x809b…11e1 crypto 22 markets active 5d ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$90 (+1%) realized +$90 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$335per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$5
world 22% $0
sports 13% +$103
weather 11% −$2
economics 10% +$2
crypto 1% −$16
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 +6.4% -3.7% 43% 7% -8.2%
all 22 -5.0% -14.1% 41% 18% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 18% -8.4%
10% -22.3% 18% -17.2%
15% -29.8% 18% -25.2%
20% -36.7% 18% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$789) neutral
Persistence
early -18% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$4 · ×3.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.69 per $1 lost it wins $2.69
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage112d
Avg bet$335
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $7 $0 -0%
Canada vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Mar 29 $107 +$107 +100%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 24 to March Mar 27 $16 −$2 -10%
Will there be between 14 and 17 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? Mar 27 $768 −$2 -0%
Will Oihan Sancet be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season Mar 27 $845 −$3 -0%
Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait o Mar 27 $842 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on March 29? Mar 27 $810 −$2 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? Mar 27 $804 −$1 -0%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027? Mar 27 $814 +$3 +0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 27 $736 +$1 +0%
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by March 31? Mar 27 $789 +$3 +0%
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? Mar 27 $751 +$2 +0%
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 2AM ET Mar 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 12PM ET Mar 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 7AM ET Feb 26 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 10AM ET Feb 26 $6 +$6 +100%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Feb 25 $13 +$13 +100%
XRP Up or Down - February 22, 3AM ET Feb 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 21, 5AM ET Feb 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6PM ET Feb 21 $8 +$8 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $6 5d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $7 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $7 21d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 41d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 41d
Canada vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $107 80d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 24 to March SELL Yes $14 80d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 24 to March BUY Yes $16 81d
Will there be between 14 and 17 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 81d
Will there be between 14 and 17 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? SELL No 99¢ $752 81d
Will there be between 14 and 17 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? BUY No 99¢ $768 81d
Will Oihan Sancet be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season SELL No 99¢ $842 81d
Will Oihan Sancet be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season BUY No 100¢ $845 81d
Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL No 100¢ $11 81d
Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL No 100¢ $832 81d
Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 99¢ $842 81d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on March 29? SELL No 99¢ $45 81d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on March 29? SELL No 99¢ $762 81d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $810 81d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 81d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? SELL No 98¢ $771 81d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $804 81d
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $757 81d
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $60 81d
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $814 81d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 97¢ $737 81d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $736 81d
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $787 81d
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $5 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records