Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x8098…5907 weather 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$49 (+0%) realized +$48 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%137W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$10
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 86% +$39
other 11% +$8
sports 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 62 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 137 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 137 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$1,154
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses137 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)137 / 140
History coverage65d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $928 $929 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $187 $187 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 25? No 99¢ 100¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $202 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $198 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $674 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $450 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $273 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $169 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $997 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $272 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $260 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $629 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $314 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on June 5? Jun 05 $418 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $398 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $327 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1,141 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $379 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 3? Jun 03 $530 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 3? Jun 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $154 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $1,137 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 1? Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 1? Jun 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 1? Jun 01 $198 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $147 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 31? May 31 $608 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $834 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 30? May 30 $299 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $1,132 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $829 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $34 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $202 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $64 7d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $66 7d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $198 7d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $374 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $150 7d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $300 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $300 8d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $150 8d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 8d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $200 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $400 8d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $119 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $169 9d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $150 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $38 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $273 9d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $150 9d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 BUY No 100¢ $150 9d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 100¢ $997 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,153.73 · official $1,153.73 (match) · 322 history records