Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:44:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

80
0x8094…3bc4
other · 132 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$184
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses27 / 44
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions61
Markets (closed)71 / 132
History coverage15d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 61 History 71 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$11
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 30¢ 65¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+119%)
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? No 42¢ 61¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+44%)
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Yes 56¢ 80¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+42%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 60¢ 66¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 71¢ 77¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 71¢ 77¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 81¢ 84¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 61¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 83¢ 91¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 80¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in June? No 42¢ 54¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+29%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? No 80¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 76¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+32%)
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? No 76¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? Yes 56¢ 84¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+50%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 79¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No 61¢ 70¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+16%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 70¢ 67¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the third highest private market valuation on June Jun 13 $1 −$1 -74%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 +$6 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$2 -16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $7 −$2 -27%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June? Jun 12 $1 $0 -10%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -31%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -27%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $7 $0 +4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 10 $4 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -17%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $6 +$4 +63%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Jun 09 $8 −$2 -26%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$4 -99%
Will RISE launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$2 +27%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $6 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1 +$19 +1506%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 07 $2 $0 -22%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 06 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 06 $9 −$5 -54%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? Jun 05 $5 −$1 -23%
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 05 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 05 $8 +$3 +41%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in June? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 05 $15 +$1 +10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $6 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 05 $19 −$1 -4%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 05 $9 −$3 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $5 +$3 +69%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $7 +$4 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $7 −$2 -33%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $6 +$3 +46%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 03 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 03 $4 −$4 -88%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +14%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.6M and 6.7M in April? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% −$18
politics 21% +$23
world 16% −$8
tech 8% −$8
sports 3% +$3
finance 3% +$3
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the third highest private market valuation on June SELL Yes 3¢ $0 56m
Will Anthropic have the third highest private market valuation on June SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Anthropic have the third highest private market valuation on June SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $4 8h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $1 8h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $4 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $4 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $2 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $2 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 9h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 10h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 11h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 11h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 11h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 11h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 12h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 7¢ $0 14h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $3 14h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 8¢ $3 14h
Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 19h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June? SELL No 84¢ $1 20h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 11¢ $1 21h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 11¢ $2 21h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 21h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? SELL No 25¢ $1 22h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 9¢ $1 22h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? SELL No 25¢ $4 22h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 8¢ $2 24h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +45.1% +31.3% 31% 19% -1.4%
≤30d 71 +3.3% -6.6% 38% 27% -11.1%
≤90d 71 +3.3% -6.6% 38% 27% -11.1%
all 71 +3.3% -6.6% 38% 27% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 27% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 21% -19.6%
15% -23.7% 15% -27.4%
20% -31.2% 11% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.36 · official $184.37 (match) · 399 history records