Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:11:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8091…6bf6 other 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$209 (-3%) realized −$209 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate35%45W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$165
14 days−$104
30 days−$381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$166
other 37% −$264
world 1% +$32
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -18.1% -25.9% 34% 28% -24.0%
≤30d 61 -18.5% -26.3% 34% 30% -17.4%
≤90d 114 -13.0% -21.3% 35% 27% -13.6%
all 127 -15.4% -23.5% 35% 28% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 28% -14.1%
10% -30.8% 24% -22.3%
15% -37.5% 20% -29.8%
20% -43.6% 17% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$31 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses45 / 82
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage130d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 $0 -32%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$16 -77%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$14 +35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $57 −$27 -47%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$5 +24%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 $0 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $81 +$35 +43%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 −$59 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 +$23 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 −$35 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $91 −$90 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $101 +$57 +56%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 +$7 +703%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$19 -63%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$45 +56%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$58 +375%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $214 +$173 +81%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $89 −$88 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 $0 -1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $87 +$6 +7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 $0 -1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $241 +$98 +41%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $468 +$89 +19%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $247 −$65 -26%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $132 +$122 +92%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $47 −$46 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $181 +$73 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 38¢ $9 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 3h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 89¢ $55 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 34h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $25 34h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 29¢ $17 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 58¢ $12 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 35h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 37h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 38h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 38h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 39h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 39h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 83¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.21 · official $36.21 (match) · 336 history records