Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
80 0x8090…8e6d other 28 markets active 19h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$12 (+3%) realized +$67 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$70
sports 25% +$63
other 23% +$21
crypto 6% −$10
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +41.1% +27.7% 67% 67% +21.3%
≤30d 12 +41.1% +27.7% 67% 67% +21.3%
≤90d 12 +41.1% +27.7% 67% 67% +21.3%
all 12 +41.1% +27.7% 67% 67% +21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.7% 67% +21.3%
10% ← realistic here +15.5% 67% +9.7%
15% +4.3% 42% -0.9%
20% -5.9% 33% -10.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized+$67
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)12 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 28¢ 16¢ $130 $77 −$53 (-41%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 61¢ 59¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 +$23 +152%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -7%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$37 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 +$15 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 +$4 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $15 +$3 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 +$5 +36%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 19h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 19h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 19h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 19h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 33¢ $14 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $15 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $15 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $100 21h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $15 38h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 80¢ $10 38h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $15 38h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $15 38h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 73¢ $15 38h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 56¢ $20 38h
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 38h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 38h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 38h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $20 38h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $20 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 38h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $10 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 18¢ $11 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.91 · official $244.08 (match) · 39 history records