Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:19:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
80 0x808c…0aa2 weather 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+2%) realized +$4 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate70%16W / 7L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days+$8
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -50.4% -55.2% 43% 43% -25.6%
≤30d 23 -8.7% -17.4% 70% 57% -7.0%
≤90d 23 -8.7% -17.4% 70% 57% -7.0%
all 23 -8.7% -17.4% 70% 57% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 57% -7.0%
10% -25.3% 26% -15.9%
15% -32.5% 13% -24.1%
20% -39.1% 9% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses16 / 7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage16d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Yes 40¢ 46¢ $38 $44 +$6 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 17? No 66¢ 63¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $20 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $15 +$5 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 09 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$8 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $30 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 6? Jun 07 $20 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 06 $15 −$3 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 06 $18 +$12 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 5? Jun 05 $9 +$6 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 5? Jun 05 $15 +$5 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 +$5 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $7 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $20 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 66¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 45h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 45h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes $5 45h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes $5 45h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $20 45h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 85¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? BUY No $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? BUY No $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 9? BUY No 87¢ $20 8d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 9? BUY No 74¢ $15 8d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 9? BUY No 92¢ $25 8d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $28 8d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 8? SELL No 17¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 8? BUY No 63¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 8? BUY No 92¢ $25 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 8? BUY No 89¢ $30 9d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 8? BUY No 89¢ $25 9d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju SELL No 61¢ $12 11d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 73¢ $15 11d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 6? BUY No 85¢ $20 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $30 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 5? BUY No 60¢ $9 12d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 4? BUY No 76¢ $7 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? BUY No 68¢ $10 13d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? BUY No 59¢ $18 13d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 5? BUY No 75¢ $15 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.63 · official $61.63 (match) · 46 history records