Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:37:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8087…0300 sports 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 567d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$145 (-4%) realized −$136 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate63%46W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$612
7 days−$364
14 days−$420
30 days−$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$381
other 48% −$569
politics 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -19.1% -26.8% 67% 67% -28.6%
≤30d 6 -32.5% -39.0% 50% 50% -30.6%
≤90d 11 -4.7% -13.8% 64% 64% -27.9%
all 73 +11.2% +0.6% 63% 62% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 62% -13.9%
10% -9.0% 59% -22.1%
15% -17.8% 48% -29.7%
20% -25.9% 44% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$40 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

567d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized−$136
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses46 / 27
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage567d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $288 $279 −$9 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $619 −$612 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $699 +$170 +24%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $421 +$78 +18%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $57 −$56 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Jun 04 $13 +$8 +62%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indians May 07 $8 +$7 +83%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi Apr 20 $18 +$10 +57%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 05 $39 +$12 +30%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-03-21? Mar 29 $22 +$17 +75%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Mar 21 $27 +$9 +32%
Will Romania win on 2025-09-09? Mar 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-28? Mar 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Kings vs. Utah Mar 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Mariners vs. Tigers Mar 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Nuggets vs. Rockets Mar 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Bulls vs. Pacers Mar 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Mar 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Pacers vs. Suns Mar 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland Mar 04 $40 +$11 +28%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-14? Feb 20 $39 +$14 +35%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 14 $22 +$17 +79%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 26 $85 −$42 -50%
Australian Open Men's: Liam Draxl vs Damir Dzumhur Jan 25 $46 +$34 +75%
Maple Leafs vs. Utah Jan 17 $29 +$21 +72%
Knicks vs. Raptors Jan 13 $19 +$10 +54%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Imperial (BO3) Nov 29 $24 +$15 +61%
Colorado vs. West Virginia Nov 13 $27 +$12 +47%
Capitals vs. Sabres Nov 08 $17 +$14 +85%
Commanders vs. Cowboys Nov 01 $12 +$11 +85%
Dodgers vs. Brewers Oct 19 $13 +$11 +89%
Will Paris FC win on 2025-10-03? Oct 07 $7 +$5 +82%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-16? Sep 28 $11 +$4 +37%
Orioles vs. Blue Jays Sep 16 $7 +$5 +61%
Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-31? Sep 09 $14 +$6 +43%
Northwestern vs. Tulane Aug 31 $15 +$8 +52%
Athletics vs. Rays Aug 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Rays vs. Yankees Aug 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Athletics vs. Orioles Aug 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Yankees vs. Reds Aug 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Spurs vs. 76ers Aug 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Cubs vs. Yankees Aug 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Sevilla win on 2025-08-25? Aug 30 $12 +$10 +79%
White Sox vs. Royals Aug 25 $11 +$9 +75%
Rays vs. Reds Aug 09 $11 +$11 +92%
Giants vs. Rockies Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Pirates vs. Tigers Jun 24 $11 +$6 +54%
Giants vs. Marlins Jun 12 $9 +$5 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $292 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $619 46h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $699 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $421 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $57 9d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 56¢ $10 15d
Hurricanes vs. Flyers BUY Hurricanes 61¢ $13 43d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indians BUY Mumbai Indians 54¢ $8 60d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore 63¢ $18 65d
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-05? BUY No 63¢ $10 74d
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines BUY Michigan Wolverines 77¢ $39 81d
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-03-21? BUY No 57¢ $22 90d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group BUY Natus Vincere 76¢ $27 93d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? BUY Yes 68¢ $37 106d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland BUY Canada 78¢ $40 119d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $39 125d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08? BUY No 56¢ $22 130d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In BUY Astralis 63¢ $42 140d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $42 144d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $85 145d
Australian Open Men's: Liam Draxl vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Dzumhur 57¢ $46 152d
Maple Leafs vs. Utah BUY Utah 58¢ $29 156d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Knicks 65¢ $19 191d
Kings vs. Utah BUY Utah 52¢ $14 192d
Bulls vs. Pacers BUY Bulls 61¢ $32 202d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Imperial (BO3) BUY Imperial 62¢ $24 204d
Nuggets vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 56¢ $24 209d
Pacers vs. Suns BUY Pacers 38¢ $26 218d
Colorado vs. West Virginia BUY West Virginia 68¢ $27 223d
Capitals vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 54¢ $17 229d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.54 · official $278.54 (match) · 145 history records