Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:18:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8087…6d7a sports 424 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$65 (-1%) realized −$74 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%172W / 238L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$57
14 days−$43
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$78
other 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -57.8% -61.8% 23% 23% -45.1%
≤30d 34 -21.9% -29.3% 38% 38% -21.3%
≤90d 328 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 42% -15.9%
all 410 -3.7% -12.9% 42% 41% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 41% -11.4%
10% -21.2% 40% -19.8%
15% -28.8% 39% -27.6%
20% -35.8% 38% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses172 / 238
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions14
Markets (closed)410 / 424
History coverage99d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 410 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Under 89¢ 100¢ $68 $76 +$8 (+12%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Over 82¢ 81¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
O/U 0.5 Rounds Over 89¢ 81¢ $23 $21 −$2 (-9%)
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Main Card) Christian Rodriguez 66¢ 100¢ $11 $17 +$6 (+51%)
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 63¢ 62¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 65¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 65¢ 32¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $5 +$3 +70%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ goals Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ assists Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Tajon Buchanan: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ assists Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 +$1 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$2 +32%
Lawrence Shankland: 2+ shots Jun 20 $19 +$21 +109%
Nottingham Open: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $8 +$8 +108%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $7 +$8 +108%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 Jun 09 $3 +$6 +180%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs Jun 04 $7 +$8 +109%
Makarska: Tamara Zidansek vs Polona Hercog Jun 03 $5 +$1 +20%
Foggia: Tatiana Prozorova vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 02 $12 +$9 +76%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Doosan Bears Jun 02 $8 +$6 +76%
UFC Fight Night: Jesus Aguilar vs. Rei Tsuruya (Flyweight, Prelims) May 29 $34 −$1 -3%
World Championships: Norway vs. Latvia May 29 $14 −$14 -100%
FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5 May 27 $6 +$6 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight, Prel May 27 $11 −$1 -10%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5 May 23 $8 −$8 -100%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz May 22 $5 +$4 +73%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5 May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 204.5 May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5 May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Panna Udvardy May 21 $6 −$6 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 May 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5 May 18 $2 +$2 +114%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Angers SCO: O/U 2.5 May 18 $11 +$11 +101%
Geneva Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Stan Wawrinka May 18 $15 −$1 -3%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 May 16 $5 +$4 +97%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 May 16 $5 +$5 +103%
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5 May 16 $2 +$2 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $37 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 63¢ $14 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $68 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $6 2h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $7 6h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 66¢ $11 10h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 58¢ $5 11h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $5 11h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $5 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $12 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 25h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 69¢ $5 26h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $5 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $7 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 26h
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Over 89¢ $23 45h
Lawrence Shankland: 2+ shots BUY No 47¢ $19 2d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 32¢ $16 3d
Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ assists BUY Yes 13¢ $4 4d
Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ assists BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ assists BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ goals BUY Yes $1 4d
Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 65¢ $1 5d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 65¢ $6 5d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 65¢ $4 5d
Nottingham Open: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Iva Jovic 51¢ $10 6d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 48¢ $1 7d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 48¢ $7 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.45 · official $221.33 (match) · 988 history records