Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:51:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
80 0x8082…a102 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$8
world 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -21.9% -29.4% 40% 40% -14.0%
≤30d 5 -21.9% -29.4% 40% 40% -14.0%
≤90d 5 -21.9% -29.4% 40% 40% -14.0%
all 5 -21.9% -29.4% 40% 40% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 40% -14.0%
10% -36.1% 40% -22.2%
15% -42.3% 40% -29.7%
20% -48.0% 20% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$22 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $95 −$8 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $68 +$27 +40%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $43 +$25 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $87 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $68 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $43 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $52 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records