Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:11:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
80 0x8082…4d66 crypto 189 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,095 (-3%) realized −$2,095 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate59%112W / 77L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$383per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$133est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days+$942
14 days+$619
30 days−$1,079
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$956
crypto 25% −$1,516
other 4% −$1,858
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +17.6% +6.4% 71% 64% -2.2%
≤30d 109 +2.5% -7.3% 65% 54% -14.5%
≤90d 135 -1.6% -11.0% 61% 52% -15.5%
all 189 -1.5% -10.9% 59% 52% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 52% -12.6%
10% -19.4% 44% -20.9%
15% -27.2% 37% -28.6%
20% -34.3% 29% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$343 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,095
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses112 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions0
Markets (closed)189 / 189
History coverage120d
Avg bet$383
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 189 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $164 +$147 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$65 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$24 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$12 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$5 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $303 −$300 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $167 +$146 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $89 +$78 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $122 −$118 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $71 +$51 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $161 −$90 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $111 +$49 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $167 −$162 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $168 −$163 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $310 −$310 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $167 +$144 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $329 +$176 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $167 +$162 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $161 −$161 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $312 +$76 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $291 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $456 +$98 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $131 +$63 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $236 −$105 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $167 +$69 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $138 −$135 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $859 −$63 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $109 +$51 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $92 +$17 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $145 −$44 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $112 +$33 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $226 +$199 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $286 +$94 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $111 +$21 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $488 −$488 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $249 +$236 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $363 +$377 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $123 −$21 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $124 +$64 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $692 −$124 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $452 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $685 +$104 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $282 +$90 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $310 −$15 -5%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $167 +$143 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $308 +$146 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $164 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $47 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $52 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $99 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $52 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $51 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $51 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $49 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $49 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $24 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $9 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $17 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $303 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $313 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $167 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $167 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $122 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $122 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $71 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $71 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $161 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $161 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $111 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 365 history records