Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:16:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x807d…72a0 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$244 (-31%) realized −$244 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%15W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$13
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$190
sports 33% −$23
world 14% −$53
crypto 13% +$1
finance 3% +$2
tech 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-38.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 29 -10.2% -18.7% 34% 34% -16.0%
≤90d 51 -31.2% -37.7% 29% 27% -41.7%
all 53 -31.8% -38.3% 28% 26% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.3% 26% -41.9%
10% -44.2% 25% -47.5%
15% -49.6% 23% -52.6%
20% -54.5% 21% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$244
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses15 / 38
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage110d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $20 −$15 -75%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $20 −$14 -70%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $24 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 −$5 -52%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Sho Shimabukuro vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 07 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$13 +126%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $61 +$59 +97%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 16 $4 $0 -5%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 16 $10 $0 -5%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 16 $10 $0 -2%
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) May 16 $10 +$6 +58%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 16 $19 −$16 -85%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 16 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 16 $5 −$4 -85%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 16 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 16 $5 +$14 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $8 +$6 +70%
Will CD Nacional win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 +$18 +180%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Koper win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 May 15 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 15 $41 −$19 -46%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 11 $13 −$4 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 11 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 11 $16 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 11 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 11 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 11 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $82 −$81 -98%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $20 −$20 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 30 $33 −$29 -89%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 30 $27 +$4 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $10 −$8 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $19 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 1h
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 32¢ $6 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 7d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 36¢ $10 7d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 7d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 7d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 7d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 7d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Monte 23¢ $5 8d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 46¢ $10 8d
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Sho Shimabukuro vs Jurij Rodionov SELL Sho Shimabukuro 52¢ $9 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 8d
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Sho Shimabukuro vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Sho Shimabukuro 29¢ $5 8d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $61 8d
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago Cubs 49¢ $4 29d
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai SELL Arnold Allen 53¢ $10 29d
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Daniel Santos 60¢ $10 29d
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) SELL Luis Gurule 96¢ $16 29d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 37¢ $16 29d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 91¢ $16 29d
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago Cubs 50¢ $4 29d
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Kansas City Royals 38¢ $10 29d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $10 29d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Toronto Blue Jays 100¢ $21 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.01 · official $49.01 (match) · 125 history records