Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:50:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
80 0x807b…3efe world 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+7%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% +$34
world 42% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -43.8% -49.1% 50% 25% +1.0%
≤30d 7 -37.4% -43.3% 57% 14% -1.3%
≤90d 7 -37.4% -43.3% 57% 14% -1.3%
all 7 -37.4% -43.3% 57% 14% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.3% 14% -1.3%
10% -48.8% 0% -10.8%
15% -53.7% 0% -19.4%
20% -58.2% 0% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×10.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.23 per $1 lost it wins $14.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage23d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $140 $140 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $116 +$24 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $112 +$4 +4%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 3% and Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Huh Tae-jung win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? Jun 04 $107 +$6 +6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 02 $100 +$8 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.69 · official $139.69 (match) · 12 history records