Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:12:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
80 0x807a…b485 crypto 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$851per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2,055now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$11
14 days−$2
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$21
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-63.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -28.4% -35.3% 71% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 20 -44.9% -50.1% 55% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 27 -59.2% -63.1% 41% 0% -9.6%
all 27 -59.2% -63.1% 41% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -66.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -69.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -72.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,044) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -69% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$2,055
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage44d
Avg bet$851
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,047 $2,050 +$3 (+0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27? Jun 27 $2,044 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 26? Jun 27 $2,039 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 26? Jun 26 $2,036 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 25? Jun 26 $2,032 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 25? Jun 25 $2,028 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 6? Jun 07 $2,075 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 6? Jun 06 $2,070 +$6 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $2,065 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? Jun 05 $2,058 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 4? Jun 05 $2,058 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $2,054 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24? May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23? May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22? May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? May 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 17? May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 14? May 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $2,047 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $2,044 18h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $2,039 25h
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,036 45h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $2,032 2d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,028 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY No 0¢ $4 4d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $4 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY No 0¢ $4 11d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $5 14d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 14d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 16d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $2,075 21d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $2,070 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $2,065 22d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $2,058 22d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $2,058 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,054 23d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 34d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23? BUY No 0¢ $4 35d
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 36d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 38d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 17? BUY No 0¢ $4 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,055.19 · official $2,055.19 (match) · 41 history records