Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8075…5c48 world 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 323d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%36W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$1
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$6
other 34% −$8
sports 15% +$3
politics 6% −$4
tech 3% +$7
culture 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
finance 0% +$7
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.0% -6.8% 43% 14% -9.4%
≤30d 29 +2.7% -7.1% 38% 10% -9.4%
≤90d 41 +2.1% -7.6% 39% 10% -9.5%
all 94 +1.5% -8.2% 38% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 5% -9.5%
10% -17.0% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.0% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.4% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses36 / 58
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage323d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 81¢ $84 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $436 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $211 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 17 $201 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $113 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $11 +$2 +22%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $315 +$2 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $79 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $110 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $451 −$15 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $222 +$11 +5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $125 −$1 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $108 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $318 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $112 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $115 −$3 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $3 $0 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $115 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $188 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $17 +$7 +43%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $112 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $100 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $57 +$3 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $106 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $2 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $24 −$2 -8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $3 +$1 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $106 +$2 +2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $169 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $123 +$1 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $231 +$7 +3%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $118 −$4 -3%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 23 $107 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $107 −$9 -8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $623 +$1 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $16 +$3 +15%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $564 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $564 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 21 $54 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $56 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 09 $24 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Aug 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $84 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $8 4h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $107 4h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $113 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $112 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $112 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $5 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $2 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $105 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $113 31h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 70¢ $100 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 70¢ $100 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $110 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $110 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $6 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $91 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $43 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $53 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $61 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $79 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $37 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $73 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $109 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.93 · official $83.94 (match) · 403 history records