Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:48:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8073…4199 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$44
crypto 12% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -6.7% -15.6% 36% 27% -12.4%
≤30d 14 -6.7% -15.6% 29% 21% -12.5%
≤90d 14 -6.7% -15.6% 29% 21% -12.5%
all 14 -6.7% -15.6% 29% 21% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 21% -12.5%
10% -23.7% 7% -20.9%
15% -31.0% 0% -28.5%
20% -37.8% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$322
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage20d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $124 $123 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $105 $110 +$5 (+5%)
Will Austria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 76¢ 75¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $107 +$18 +17%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $101 +$9 +9%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $16 $0 -2%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $94 +$12 +13%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $101 −$6 -6%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $60 −$11 -19%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $42 +$11 +26%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $190 −$24 -13%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $13 −$7 -53%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $89 −$26 -29%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $5 $0 -6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 35¢ $37 1h
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 1h
Will Austria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 76¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $124 10h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 32¢ $70 10h
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 20h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 21h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $107 21h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 21h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $94 26h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $95 26h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $49 35h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 40h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 40h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $71 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $71 2d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $42 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $42 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $42 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $42 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $18 2d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $17 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 5d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $13 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.31 · official $322.34 (match) · 83 history records