Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x8071…96de world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%9W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% $0
politics 17% $0
other 14% −$1
sports 13% −$9
economics 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +1.4% -8.3% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 9 -6.4% -15.3% 33% 0% -11.7%
all 36 -3.9% -13.0% 25% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -10.8%
10% -21.4% 0% -19.3%
15% -29.0% 0% -27.1%
20% -35.9% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses9 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage253d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $158 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $91 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $5 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $4 $0 +7%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 24 $13 −$9 -68%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 11 $7 −$1 -21%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 05 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 29 $8 −$2 -20%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $54 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Nov 20 $1 $0 -25%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 20 $2 $0 -22%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $16 +$2 +10%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 20 $15 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 20 $21 $0 -1%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Oct 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Oct 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $21 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 18 $22 $0 -1%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 17 $21 $0 -0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 14 $3 $0 -6%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 13 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $42 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $9 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $38 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $47 7h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $19 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $47 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $47 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $47 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $47 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $46 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $47 12d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $5 13d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $5 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $42 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $5 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $5 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $48 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $48 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.89 · official $41.90 (match) · 133 history records