Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

80 0x806e…2e52 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$609 (+17%) realized +$1,041 · open −$432

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip

Net edge+18%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown93%max

Avg bet$707per market

Trades / day1.1pace

Fees−$16est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$1,251now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+22.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+35.4%	+22.5%	67%	67%	+22.8%
≤30d	3	+35.4%	+22.5%	67%	67%	+22.8%
≤90d	3	+35.4%	+22.5%	67%	67%	+22.8%
all	3	+35.4%	+22.5%	67%	67%	+22.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+22.5%	67%	+22.8%
10%	+10.8%	67%	+11.1%
15%	+0.1%	67%	+0.4%
20%	-9.7%	67%	-9.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +36% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +35% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$624 vs −$600 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$1,251

Realized+$1,041

Unrealized−$432

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$16

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage5d

Avg bet$707

Trades / day1.1

Drawdown93%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	40¢	28¢	$1,200	$825	−$375 (-31%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$483	$426	−$57 (-12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$609	+$615	+101%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$606	−$600	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$602	+$632	+105%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$611	55m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$611	1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY DR Congo	49¢	$609	7h
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	64¢	$606	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	48¢	$602	4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$497	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,250.92 · official $1,190.92 · 13 history records