Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:51:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x806c…2af5 crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%45W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$6
crypto 11% +$3
other 5% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 56 +0.3% -9.2% 80% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses45 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage534d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Apr 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Mar 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 02 $46 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? Dec 03 $52 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $16 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 04 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 04 $55 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 02 $23 +$1 +2%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 150% and 200% on April 3 May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? May 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? May 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 in April? May 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? May 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 20 $102 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2025? Apr 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Apr 03 $8 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 03 $12 $0 +2%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Mar 20 $5,669 −$6 -0%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.39ºC in February 2025? Mar 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? Feb 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Jan 24-31? Feb 12 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? BUY No 100¢ $62 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $40 30d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $13 61d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $54 62d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 100¢ $19 91d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $46 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 120d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $25 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $30 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 99¢ $16 149d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $46 150d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $5 180d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $34 181d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? BUY No 100¢ $52 211d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $16 242d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? BUY No 100¢ $37 242d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $22 272d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $33 273d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 300d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $13 301d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $45 301d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $4 332d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $15 332d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $47 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 98¢ $23 365d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 394d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? BUY No 100¢ $13 394d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.17 · official $62.17 (match) · 118 history records