Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:57:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x806c…d4fb sports 480 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$340 (-4%) realized −$356 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%184W / 295L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$31
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$160
other 3% −$186
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +8.0% -2.3% 100% 33% -6.6%
≤30d 43 -7.7% -16.5% 58% 23% -11.1%
≤90d 128 -16.4% -24.4% 45% 27% -17.3%
all 479 -10.2% -18.7% 38% 31% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 31% -13.5%
10% -26.5% 25% -21.8%
15% -33.6% 22% -29.3%
20% -40.1% 18% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$356
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses184 / 295
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)479 / 480
History coverage152d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 479 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Bald 85¢ 100¢ $92 $109 +$16 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 22 $161 +$3 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $18 +$4 +21%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 16 $53 $0 +1%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $125 +$2 +2%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 11 $111 +$18 +16%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia Jun 09 $115 +$2 +2%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $115 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 08 $9 −$4 -44%
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Am Jun 08 $125 +$7 +5%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $33 −$10 -32%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $38 −$13 -33%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $14 +$9 +62%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 06 $35 +$4 +12%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $33 +$10 +32%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $13 −$5 -40%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $76 +$18 +24%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $42 +$14 +32%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southea Jun 04 $125 −$32 -26%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs Jun 03 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 03 $9 −$2 -18%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 03 $28 −$10 -36%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $125 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 03 $28 −$10 -35%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Cl Jun 03 $13 +$11 +84%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $31 −$11 -35%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $68 −$20 -29%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Team Lynx (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Eu Jun 02 $27 +$4 +14%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $16 −$15 -98%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $151 +$6 +4%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier May 30 $112 +$11 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $195 +$8 +4%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $25 −$6 -23%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $11 +$1 +6%
Dota 2: Team G vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Euro May 30 $29 −$3 -10%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 29 $139 +$6 +4%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs May 29 $66 −$14 -22%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $339 +$7 +2%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $112 +$8 +7%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $15 −$4 -30%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $24 +$3 +12%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 28 $41 +$3 +8%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers May 28 $17 −$6 -35%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag May 28 $99 −$41 -41%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $63 −$23 -36%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $97 +$8 +8%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q May 21 $26 −$9 -35%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor May 19 $92 +$9 +10%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $20 −$6 -32%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 16 $20 −$1 -6%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $20 +$3 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close BUY Team Bald 85¢ $93 1h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY THE VISION 98¢ $161 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $18 16h
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY KT Rolster Challengers 98¢ $125 12d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY LOUD 86¢ $0 12d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY LOUD 86¢ $35 12d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY LOUD 86¢ $37 12d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY LOUD 86¢ $39 12d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 98¢ $7 14d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 98¢ $98 14d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 98¢ $5 14d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 98¢ $5 14d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $115 14d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL VP.Prodigy 35¢ $5 14d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY VP.Prodigy 61¢ $9 14d
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Am BUY RED Canids 95¢ $19 15d
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Am BUY RED Canids 95¢ $19 15d
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Am BUY RED Canids 95¢ $11 15d
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Am BUY RED Canids 95¢ $19 15d
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Am BUY RED Canids 95¢ $19 15d
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Am BUY RED Canids 95¢ $19 15d
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Am BUY RED Canids 95¢ $19 15d
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs SELL FURIA Esports 88¢ $53 16d
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs BUY FURIA Esports 87¢ $53 16d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL Aurora 55¢ $23 16d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 79¢ $33 16d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL BetBoom Team 51¢ $26 16d
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs SELL GAM Esports 50¢ $14 16d
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs BUY GAM Esports 32¢ $9 16d
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs SELL GAM Esports 25¢ $9 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.62 · official $108.62 (match) · 1102 history records