Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:40:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
80 0x806a…62d7 sports 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$196 (-2%) realized −$191 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%67W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$24
other 28% −$663
world 11% +$404
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 147 +4.7% -5.3% 46% 45% -12.2%
all 147 +4.7% -5.3% 46% 45% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 45% -12.2%
10% -14.3% 45% -20.6%
15% -22.6% 43% -28.2%
20% -30.2% 35% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$45 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized−$191
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses67 / 80
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions6
Markets (closed)147 / 153
History coverage115d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 69¢ 68¢ $90 $88 −$2 (-2%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 47¢ 46¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 56¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Score May 16 $37 −$36 -99%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score May 16 $46 −$45 -99%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $40 +$42 +105%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score May 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 16 $55 +$25 +46%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $86 −$85 -99%
RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Score May 10 $90 +$51 +57%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 09 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 09 $81 −$79 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? May 09 $1 +$9 +587%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score May 09 $90 +$46 +52%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5) May 09 $20 +$17 +82%
Exact Score: Sunderland AFC 3 - 1 Manchester United FC? May 08 $7 −$7 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jaqueline Cristian May 08 $10 −$3 -32%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 08 $20 −$19 -99%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $15 −$15 -98%
US Lecce vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score May 08 $36 −$35 -99%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to Score May 08 $56 +$25 +46%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $61 −$30 -48%
Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5) May 07 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $96 −$95 -99%
Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5) May 07 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $86 +$47 +55%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $10 +$45 +437%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) May 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 3 - 1 Chelsea FC? May 05 $9 −$9 -97%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) May 05 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $101 +$35 +35%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $27 −$27 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Lilli Tagger vs Alina Korn May 05 $8 +$19 +237%
SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score May 05 $56 −$55 -99%
Monaco vs. Olympiacos B.C. May 05 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Gangwon FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $81 +$53 +66%
Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5) May 04 $65 +$17 +26%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $40 +$25 +61%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to Score May 04 $51 −$51 -99%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $82 −$31 -38%
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5) May 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 4.5 May 03 $4 −$4 -98%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $56 +$56 +99%
SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Score May 03 $51 +$48 +95%
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-2.5) May 03 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5) May 03 $102 +$152 +149%
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5) May 02 $41 −$41 -99%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 02 $41 −$40 -98%
CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score May 02 $76 +$47 +62%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 4 - 1 Tottenham Hotspur FC? May 02 $3 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $25 1h
France vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $18 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 69¢ $91 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $56 1h
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $37 42d
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $46 42d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 42d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $40 42d
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $40 43d
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 68¢ $55 48d
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 61¢ $86 48d
RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $141 48d
RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $90 49d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 49d
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) BUY Aston Villa FC 34¢ $31 49d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $10 49d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 49d
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $136 49d
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Jeremy Stephens 21¢ $20 49d
Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5) SELL Brighton & Hove Albion FC 100¢ $37 49d
Exact Score: Sunderland AFC 3 - 1 Manchester United FC? BUY Yes $7 50d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jaqueline Cristian SELL Karolina Pliskova 17¢ $7 50d
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $20 50d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jaqueline Cristian BUY Karolina Pliskova 24¢ $10 50d
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-08? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 50d
US Lecce vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $36 50d
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $81 50d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 46¢ $26 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.40 · official $211.40 (match) · 267 history records